After a brief hiatus, I’m back. It’s back. Welcome to News, Views and Truths!
Firstly, apologies for the lack of content over the last 3 weeks, however normal service has resumed.
And it seems normal service has resumed to global stock markets too. Following the sell-off in 2018, year to date returns across most global markets have been nothing short of stellar.
And on that theme, investors globally are moving away from the forecasted doom and gloom of the New Year into positive territory. Research conducted by Yardini Research in the US, charted below, is highlighting a swift reversal in investment managers’ sentiment from bearish to bullish in the space of weeks.
So why the positivity? Simply put, the support is being provided by central banks, a topic which I have been rattling on about since the beginning of the year. Culminating in yesterday’s Bank of England meeting and subsequent announcement.
The BoE has decided, again, to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75%. Ok, nothing new there. Central banks globally are maintaining a very supportive, loose monetary policy. It did, however, give a clearer path to the rate rises, although this is expected to be a 0.25% increase to 1.0%… by 2021.
So, no rate rises for 2 years. Again, in absolute lockstep with most central banks. And supporting to equity markets.
However, more importantly to markets and investors, was their upwards revision of UK growth expectations. The BoE now sees the UK economy growing 1.5% in 2019, having been revised down to 1.2% in February’s inflation report. In 2020, this is expected to pick up slightly to 1.6% before accelerating more substantially to 2.1% in 2021.
Despite Brexit. Remember this…?
Source: Guardian, 28th November 2018
And if you had heeded those warnings, you would have missed out on a cracking market, one which you are currently enjoying, although possibly unbeknownst.
As I have discussed in this medium and also during my client visits, the supportive backdrop is very positive for investors and I continue to firmly believe that 2019 should be an excellent year for investors. Immediate worries of global recessions have disappeared like the morning mist on a sunny day and although I am always focused upon what is over the horizon, it would be soundly remiss of me not to capture these immediate and significant upside opportunities. Happy days! Despite Brexit.
And it’s a Bank Holiday weekend!!!!!
So, to celebrate that, our usual Spotify playlist. I hope you all have a wonderful extended weekend and I shall see you all next week.